Stock Market Outlook: Futures Rise as Oil Eases After Houthi Strikes on Saudi Targets; Fed and Big Tech Earnings Loom
Stock market outlook for Monday, Oct. 26, 2026: U.S. stock futures pointed higher before the opening bell as crude oil pulled back from Friday’s spike. The pullback came after a weekend of Houthi strikes claimed against Saudi oil infrastructure and Riyadh’s main airport. What comes next for stocks depends on three things landing in the same few days: oil prices near $100 a barrel or higher, a Federal Reserve decision on Wednesday, and quarterly results from Microsoft, Alphabet and Amazon.
This stock market outlook covers where markets stand, why oil is the swing factor, and the scheduled catalysts investors are watching through Friday.
Stock Market Outlook: Where Futures Stand Monday Morning
As of about 5:30 a.m. ET, Dow futures were up about 0.5%, S&P 500 futures about 0.3% and Nasdaq 100 futures about 0.25%, according to TipRanks. Earlier in the session, Benzinga reported Russell 2000 futures up 0.4%.
Overseas, European stocks opened higher after last week’s weakness. Hong Kong’s Hang Seng rose about 0.5%, and Japan’s Nikkei 225 fell about 0.8%.
How Friday ended (Oct. 23 close)
| Index / asset | Friday close | Daily change |
|---|---|---|
| S&P 500 | 7,623.68 | −0.52% |
| Dow Jones Industrial Average | 52,215.16 | −1.23% |
| Nasdaq Composite | 25,955.34 | −0.21% |
| Russell 2000 | 2,775.90 | −0.29% |
| Brent crude (Dec.) | $116.72 | +3.14% |
| WTI crude (Dec.) | $103.27 | +3.80% |
| 10-year Treasury yield | 4.999% | +5 bp |
| Cboe Volatility Index (VIX) | 19.45 | +2.21% |
Sources: DeanFi Market Pulse (index closes); Capp Notes Closing Look (Russell 2000, crude, yields, VIX).
For the week, the S&P 500 fell 0.47% and the Nasdaq Composite fell 0.71%, while the Dow gained 0.41%, TipRanks reported. Friday’s Brent settlement was its highest since April 29. Energy was the only S&P sector to gain meaningfully on Friday, up 2.6%. Consumer staples, communication services and consumer discretionary each fell more than 1.6%.
Why Oil Is the Swing Factor This Week
What happened over the weekend
On Saturday, Yemen’s Houthis claimed attacks on Saudi Arabia’s East-West pipeline and crude pumping stations, an Aramco facility in Yanbu, and the Rabigh refinery. On Monday they claimed new strikes on East-West pumping stations and on King Khalid International Airport in Riyadh, Reuters reported (via Cyprus Mail).
- Not yet confirmed: Saudi Arabia had not immediately confirmed the attacks claimed on Saturday or Monday.
- Coalition statement: The Saudi-led coalition said it destroyed two ballistic missile launchers in Sanaa. It said one had been used to fire a missile toward Riyadh, and that missile was intercepted.
- Diplomacy: Officials from Saudi Arabia, Turkey and Pakistan were scheduled to meet Iranian officials in Tehran on Monday, according to the same report.
Why the pipeline matters to markets
The East-West pipeline can carry about 7 million barrels a day from Saudi Arabia’s eastern oilfields to Red Sea export terminals, bypassing the Strait of Hormuz, The National reported. With Hormuz largely shut by the Iran war, that route has become a key export path. Any damage to it can reach prices quickly.
Last week also brought an Oct. 21 drone attack near the Shaybah oilfield, which produces about 1 million barrels a day. Saudi authorities said the drone was intercepted and operations were unaffected.
Monday’s pullback
Early Monday, Brent fell about 2% to roughly $114 a barrel and WTI fell about 2.4% to roughly $101, TipRanks reported, citing traders’ worries that high prices could cut demand. Quotes varied across sources during overnight trading, so readers should check live prices.
Analysis: Higher oil prices feed into gasoline, airfares and shipping costs. That makes the Fed’s inflation job harder and squeezes profit margins outside the energy sector. Friday’s sector split, with energy up and consumer-facing groups down, showed that pattern.
Federal Reserve Decision on Wednesday
The Federal Open Market Committee meets Tuesday and Wednesday. In September the Fed raised the federal funds target range by a quarter point to 3.75%–4.00% in a 12–0 vote, saying “inflation remains elevated.”
- Market pricing: Fed funds futures imply about a 90% chance the Fed holds the range steady this week, according to CNBC data cited by TipRanks.
- Economists’ expectations: In a Reuters poll cited by Investing.com, 94 of 100 economists expected a hold this week, and all 100 expected a hike in December.
- Timing: The statement is due at 2:00 p.m. ET Wednesday, with Chair Kevin Warsh’s press conference at 2:30 p.m.
Analysis: If a hold is fully expected, the market reaction will probably depend on what the statement and press conference say about the path into December. The 10-year Treasury yield ended Friday just under 5%, so it matters how the Fed describes the inflation risk from energy prices. Rate-sensitive groups, including REITs, utilities and homebuilders, are especially exposed to that guidance.
Big Tech Earnings and the AI Spending Debate
Microsoft (MSFT), Alphabet (GOOGL) and Amazon (AMZN) report this week. Investors want to see whether heavy AI infrastructure spending is turning into revenue. That question pushed the Nasdaq to a second straight weekly loss. Benzinga noted that Meta fell 9.4% last week after its own report and led a sell-off in the “Magnificent 7.”
Other scheduled reporters include Boeing (BA), Visa (V), Mastercard (MA), PayPal (PYPL), Intel (INTC), Starbucks (SBUX), SoFi (SOFI), Robinhood (HOOD), Exxon Mobil (XOM) and Chevron (CVX). The two oil majors report into Brent prices above $110.
Premarket mover: Shares of AI cloud providers CoreWeave (CRWV), Nebius (NBIS) and Iren (IREN) fell 1.8% to 2.4% before the open. The move followed an Elon Musk post predicting “death and consolidation” among smaller “neocloud” providers. Musk also said SpaceX (SPCX) had closed $40 billion in debt financing to buy GPUs, according to TipRanks. (Company-executive statements; not independently verified.)
Economic Calendar: Key Data This Week
| Day | Release / event |
|---|---|
| Tuesday, Oct. 27 | ADP employment change; September durable goods orders; new home sales; FOMC meeting begins |
| Wednesday, Oct. 28 | FOMC decision (2:00 p.m. ET) and press conference (2:30 p.m. ET) |
| Thursday, Oct. 29 | Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index; weekly jobless claims |
PCE is the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge. Thursday’s report comes a day after the rate decision and will show how much energy costs are feeding through to consumer prices.
Key Takeaways for Investors
- Oil: Brent is still above $110 even after Monday’s dip. More confirmed damage to Saudi export routes could reverse the pullback.
- Rates: Markets expect the Fed to hold. Comments about a December hike could move Treasury yields, which are near 5%.
- Earnings: Microsoft, Alphabet and Amazon will test whether investors accept AI spending at its current pace.
- Breadth: Only 37.8% of S&P 500 companies are outperforming the index year over year, according to Benzinga, so a small group of stocks is still driving index gains.
Developing: Oil prices and Middle East developments were moving quickly as of Monday morning. This article reflects information available before the U.S. market open.
Related Vanderbiltreport.com Coverage
- Stock Market Outlook: Nasdaq Futures Rebound After AI Sell-Off as Meta, Tesla Earnings Week Begins
- 10-Year Treasury Yield Near 5.3%: Weak Jobs, ISM Services and the Week That Tests Stocks
- Stock Market Outlook: Bull Market Turns Four as Bank Earnings and CPI Test Record Highs
- RingCentral Earnings: Q3 Profit Beats Estimates, 2026 Outlook Raised
Sources
- TipRanks — Stock Market Today, Oct. 26
- Benzinga — Will S&P 500 Open Up or Down Today?
- DeanFi — Market Pulse, Oct. 23, 2026
- Capp Notes — Closing Look, Oct. 23, 2026
- Reuters via Cyprus Mail — Houthis claim attacks on Saudi oil facilities and Riyadh airport
- The National — Oil tops $110 as Houthi drone strike near Shaybah rattles markets
- Federal Reserve — FOMC statement, Sept. 16, 2026
- Investing.com — Fed meeting on tap
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