Stock Market Outlook: Nasdaq Futures Rebound After AI Sell-Off as Meta, Tesla Earnings Week Begins
Investor Outlook — Monday, Oct. 19, 2026. Market figures are as of early Monday trading and Friday’s close and may change during the session.
This Monday’s stock market outlook centers on one question: was last week’s AI sell-off a reset or the start of something larger? U.S. stock futures pointed to a tech-led rebound early Monday after the Nasdaq Composite and S&P 500 posted their biggest weekly drop since late June. The test now arrives quickly, with Meta Platforms, Tesla, Netflix, General Motors and GE Aerospace among more than 200 large companies reporting results this week.
Key Takeaways
- Rebound attempt: At 7:05 a.m. ET, Nasdaq 100 e-minis were up 1.05% and S&P 500 e-minis were up 0.47%, while Dow e-minis slipped 0.14% (Reuters via Investing.com).
- Last week’s damage: The Nasdaq fell 4.5% for the week and the S&P 500 fell 2%, while the Dow gained 0.7% (Investopedia via Yahoo Finance).
- Yields eased: The 10-year Treasury yield fell to about 5.08% Monday morning, after touching 5.33% following last Wednesday’s CPI report.
- Oil still above $100: Brent fell about 1.3% to roughly $108.50 a barrel early Monday after jumping 3.5% on Friday.
- Earnings week: Meta and Tesla report Wednesday after the close; SpaceX reports Tuesday.
Stock Market Outlook: What Drove Last Week’s AI Sell-Off
The pressure came from worries about how AI infrastructure is being financed. CoreWeave (NASDAQ: CRWV), the Nvidia-backed cloud provider, fell more than 15% on Wednesday over concerns about its debt. It rebounded 6% Thursday, then dropped 12% on Friday, according to Investopedia. Reuters reported that the stock lost more than 25% over the week.
The selling spread across semiconductors and big tech on Friday:
- Nasdaq Composite: −2.1%; S&P 500: −1.2%; Dow: −0.3%
- iShares Semiconductor ETF (SOXX): −4%; Memory ETF (DRAM): −5.5%
- Meta Platforms (META): nearly −4%; Tesla (TSLA): −2% after unveiling its new Roadster; Nvidia (NVDA): −1.5%
- Apple (AAPL): about +0.5%, the only Magnificent Seven stock to gain
Premarket movers Monday (Reuters, 7:05 a.m. ET)
| Stock | Premarket move | Reported reason |
|---|---|---|
| Cleveland-Cliffs (CLF) | +13.8% | Third-quarter profit beat analysts’ estimates |
| Intel (INTC) | +4.4% | J.P. Morgan upgraded to “neutral” from “underweight” |
| CoreWeave (CRWV) | +3.4% | Rebound after a 25%+ weekly drop |
| Micron (MU) | +3.3% | Chip-sector rebound |
| Broadcom (AVGO) | +2.9% | Chip-sector rebound |
| Nvidia (NVDA), Amazon (AMZN) | >+1% | Big-tech rebound |
Expert commentary: Ipek Ozkardeskaya, senior analyst at Swissquote, told Reuters that investors want “stronger monetization, proof that the revenues generated with AI can catch up.” She added that “another promise to spend billions may not sit well in investors’ stomachs” after last week.
Rates and the Fed: Yields Near 5%
Rates have weighed on stocks all month. The 10-year Treasury yield reached 5.33% after Wednesday’s consumer price report, then fell back as investors moved into safer assets. It ended Friday just above 5.09%, according to Investopedia. Reuters put it at about 5.08% early Monday.
Inflation data is still mixed. September import prices rose 1.1% and export prices rose 2.2%, the strongest gain in five months (Simply Wall St via Yahoo Finance). Fed Chair Kevin Warsh has not given a clear signal on the next move. On Friday, CME FedWatch pricing showed about a 17% chance of a rate hike at the Oct. 27–28 FOMC meeting, down from 28% earlier, per Investopedia.
Commodities: Oil Above $100 as Supply Risks Persist
On Friday, WTI crude rose 3.4% to $101.35 a barrel and Brent rose 3.5% to $109.55, as Middle East risks outweighed efforts to add supply. Early Monday, Brent eased about 1.3%. Reuters cited two developments:
- President Trump decided to waive some sanctions on Russia. Secretary of State Marco Rubio said Saturday the president would take up to 60 days to assess the economic impact.
- Iran reported that another tanker struck a mine in the Strait of Hormuz. Shipping and insurance costs are keeping prompt-delivery oil prices well above benchmark levels.
Gold traded near $4,190 an ounce on Friday, and bitcoin was around $81,400.
Earnings Calendar: The Week’s Biggest Reports
About 214 companies valued at $2 billion or more report this week, according to StockTitan’s earnings calendar. Consensus EPS figures are analyst estimates, not company guidance. Report dates come from that calendar and can change, so confirm with each company’s investor-relations page.
| Day | Notable reports (consensus EPS) |
|---|---|
| Mon., Oct. 19 | Fifth Third (FITB, $1.09) before the open; Steel Dynamics (STLD, $5.42) and W.R. Berkley (WRB, $1.14) after the close |
| Tue., Oct. 20 | GE Aerospace (GE, $2.02), RTX ($1.78), 3M (MMM, $2.41), General Motors (GM, $3.52), Northrop Grumman (NOC, $7.22) before the open; Netflix (NFLX, $0.82), Intuitive Surgical (ISRG), Capital One (COF), United Airlines (UAL) after the close; SpaceX also reports |
| Wed., Oct. 21 | AT&T (T), Thermo Fisher (TMO), Abbott (ABT) before the open; Meta Platforms (META, $6.67), Tesla (TSLA, $0.21), Lam Research (LRCX), Texas Instruments (TXN), IBM after the close |
| Thu., Oct. 22 | Procter & Gamble (PG), Union Pacific (UNP), Lockheed Martin (LMT), Valero (VLO) before the open; Western Digital (WDC) after the close |
| Fri., Oct. 23 | American Express (AXP, $4.47), SLB ($0.62) |
Economic data this week
- Monday: NAHB Housing Market Index (consensus near 31 vs. 32 in September)
- Tuesday: Housing starts and building permits (forecast about 1.30 million and 1.40 million); Atlanta Fed GDPNow update
- Wednesday: EIA weekly crude and gasoline inventories
What Investors Are Watching
This section is analysis, not a forecast. After a week driven by fears about AI financing, Meta’s and Tesla’s reports on Wednesday will be read for what they say about AI spending plans and returns. That ties directly to the monetization question analysts are raising. With the 10-year yield near 5% and oil above $100, this week’s housing data and the oil inventory report also bear on the rate backdrop ahead of the Oct. 27–28 Fed meeting.
Related Vanderbilt Report Coverage
- Stock Market Outlook: Bull Market Turns Four as Bank Earnings and CPI Test Record Highs
- 10-Year Treasury Yield Near 5.3%: Weak Jobs, ISM Services and the Week That Tests Stocks
- Nike Earnings: Q1 Sales Fall 4% as Greater China Drops 26%
Sources
- Reuters (via Investing.com): Wall St futures climb as AI stocks rebound; oil, yields fall — Oct. 19, 2026
- Investopedia (via Yahoo Finance): Markets News, Oct. 16, 2026
- Simply Wall St (via Yahoo Finance): US Stock Market Today — Oct. 19, 2026
- StockTitan: Earnings calendar, week of Oct. 19, 2026
- NordFX: Market Pulse, Oct. 19, 2026
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