Stock Market Outlook: Futures Rebound After Nasdaq’s Worst Month Since 2025 as Apple, Palantir and ISM Data Kick Off a Packed Week
Stock market outlook for Monday, Nov. 2, 2026: U.S. stock index futures pointed higher early Monday, attempting a rebound after a bruising Friday that capped the Nasdaq Composite’s worst month since March 2025. Investors open November facing one of the most crowded calendars of the year: Apple and Palantir report after the bell today, ISM manufacturing data lands this morning, Americans vote in the midterm elections on Tuesday, and the October jobs report arrives Friday.
This outlook separates verified market data from company guidance, analyst commentary and developing information. Figures are as of early Monday and will change once regular trading opens.
Where Futures Stand Before the Open
As of about 5 a.m. ET, Yahoo Finance’s market data showed (Yahoo Finance):
| Contract | Level | Change |
|---|---|---|
| S&P 500 futures (ES=F) | 7,652.25 | +38.25 (+0.50%) |
| Dow futures (YM=F) | 52,203 | +285 (+0.55%) |
| Nasdaq-100 futures (NQ=F) | 28,770.50 | +236.50 (+0.83%) |
| Russell 2000 futures | 2,843.90 | +22.60 (+0.80%) |
| Cboe Volatility Index (VIX) | 18.85 | −0.57 (−2.94%) |
Chipmakers and other technology names led the early rebound, according to Yahoo Finance, after Nasdaq-100 futures briefly entered correction territory, typically defined as a 10% decline from a recent high.
What Happened Friday: AI Spending Worries Hit Big Tech
Verified market data: The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed Friday, Oct. 30, at 51,770.31, down 572.29 points, or 1.09%. The Nasdaq Composite fell about 2.8%, its worst day since June 5, and the S&P 500 lost roughly 2% (Yahoo Finance, Oct. 30 live coverage).
Why it happened: Yahoo Finance reported that quarterly results from Amazon and Alphabet renewed concerns about how much Big Tech is spending on artificial intelligence. Intel shares fell sharply after the company’s fourth-quarter outlook came up short, and Alphabet’s decline was described as its worst day in more than 20 years. Vanderbiltreport.com covered the Amazon report in detail in Amazon Earnings: AWS Grows 39% in Q3 2026.
October scorecard
- Dow: +1.5% for the month — the only major index to gain
- S&P 500: −1.2%
- Nasdaq Composite: −5.2%, its worst month since March 2025
Analyst commentary: Truist’s Keith Lerner said a combination of historical pullbacks, valuation and technical support suggested potential downside of roughly 2% to 8% for tech from Friday’s levels, according to Yahoo Finance. That is one strategist’s view, not a forecast by Vanderbiltreport.com.
Rates, Oil, Gold and Bitcoin
- 10-year Treasury yield: about 4.93%, down roughly 6 basis points on Yahoo Finance’s quote board. For background on the recent rate backdrop, see our earlier coverage, 10-Year Treasury Yield Near 5.3%.
- Crude oil: December WTI futures were near $99.81 a barrel, down more than 4%, and Brent traded near $109, after reports that the U.S. and Iran are seeking a diplomatic resolution to the war in the Middle East (Yahoo Finance). Developing: Wisevoter reported that Iranian negotiators met Qatari mediators in Doha for a third straight day (Wisevoter). On Friday, Brent had traded near $112 and WTI near $104.
- Gold: about $3,904.70 an ounce, little changed.
- Bitcoin: near $78,000, roughly flat, as the crypto market continues to digest the $6.3 billion hack of Binance that Yahoo Finance described as the largest crypto theft on record.
Today’s Economic Data: ISM Manufacturing
The Institute for Supply Management’s October manufacturing survey is due at 10 a.m. ET. Consensus expectations compiled by Yahoo Finance:
| Release (Monday) | Expected | Prior |
|---|---|---|
| ISM manufacturing index (Oct.) | 54.7 | 54.5 |
| ISM prices paid | 77.5 | 77.9 |
| ISM new orders | 54.9 | 55.3 |
| ISM employment | 52.0 | 52.7 |
| Construction spending (Sept., m/m) | +0.5% | +0.9% |
The prices-paid component matters most for rates. A reading near 78 signals factories are still facing strong cost pressure, a theme the Federal Reserve is watching closely.
The Fed backdrop
The Fed held rates steady last week in a split decision even as inflation moved higher. On Friday, St. Louis Fed President Alberto Musalem said inflation is too high and broad-based and that the Fed needs to act “soon,” while Richmond Fed President Tom Barkin suggested rates need to go higher, Yahoo Finance reported. September PCE inflation data firmed expectations for a December rate increase. These are official statements and market expectations, not certainties.
Earnings After the Bell: Apple and Palantir
Apple (NASDAQ: AAPL)
Apple reports fiscal fourth-quarter results after Monday’s close. The stock was modestly lower in early indications ahead of the report (Yahoo Finance). After last week’s reactions to Alphabet, Amazon and Intel, investors are likely to focus on how Apple frames its AI plans and capital spending.
Palantir Technologies (NASDAQ: PLTR)
Palantir is scheduled to report third-quarter results after the close, with a webcast at 5 p.m. ET (InvestingCube).
- Company guidance: Q3 revenue of $2.160 billion to $2.164 billion; full-year 2026 revenue guidance of $8.150 billion to $8.158 billion (24/7 Wall St.).
- Analyst consensus (via MarketBeat, per InvestingCube): revenue of about $2.18 billion, slightly above the guidance range.
- Prior quarter: Q2 revenue was $1.935 billion, with U.S. commercial revenue up 149% to $764 million.
Other reports today
Yahoo Finance’s calendar also lists Vertex Pharmaceuticals (VRTX), Marriott (MAR), Williams Companies (WMB), Diamondback Energy (FANG), Realty Income (O), ON Semiconductor (ON), Roku (ROKU), Fox Corp. (FOX), Loews (L), Ryanair (RYAAY), Tower Semiconductor (TSEM) and Lattice Semiconductor (LSCC).
The Week’s Major Catalysts
- Tuesday, Nov. 3 — Midterm elections: All 435 House seats and 35 Senate seats are on the ballot. Our US News desk covers the election in detail; see also The Week Ahead for recent context.
- Throughout the week — labor data: Several labor-market releases culminate in the government’s October employment report on Friday, Nov. 6.
- Middle East diplomacy: Any progress or setback in U.S.–Iran talks is likely to move oil, which has been a major driver of inflation expectations.
- Earnings: Results continue all week as the third-quarter reporting season winds down.
Key Takeaways for Investors
- Futures are rebounding after the Nasdaq’s worst month since March 2025, but the rebound follows a sharp AI-driven sell-off rather than a change in fundamentals.
- Oil’s slide on diplomacy hopes is easing some inflation pressure, while Fed officials continue to signal a bias toward higher rates.
- Apple and Palantir tonight, ISM this morning and Friday’s jobs report are the scheduled tests; the midterm election adds event risk on Tuesday.
For previous editions of our Monday outlook, see Stock Market Outlook: Futures Rise as Oil Eases (Oct. 26) and Stock Market Outlook: Nasdaq Futures Rebound After AI Sell-Off (Oct. 19).
Sources
- Yahoo Finance — Stock market today, Nov. 2, 2026
- Yahoo Finance — Stock market today, Oct. 30, 2026
- Wisevoter — Futures rebound after Friday’s sell-off
- InvestingCube — Palantir earnings preview
- 24/7 Wall St. — Palantir Q3 preview
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