2026 Midterm Elections: More Than 50 Million Early Votes Cast as Senate, House Control Goes to Voters Tuesday
The 2026 midterm elections are on Tuesday, Nov. 3, and with one day of campaigning left, more than 50 million Americans have already voted. Control of both chambers of Congress, 36 governorships and well over a hundred statewide ballot measures will be decided, in an election shaped by a war with Iran, high fuel prices, new congressional maps and court fights over how votes are cast and counted.
Here is what is known on the eve of Election Day, who is affected, and what happens next. Verified figures are labeled separately from forecasts and campaign statements.
Early Voting Runs Well Ahead of 2022
Verified data:
- As of the morning of Sunday, Nov. 1, about 53.1 million people had voted early — roughly 29 million in person and 23 million by mail — according to the University of Florida Election Lab, as reported by Al Jazeera. The total early vote in the 2022 midterms was about 46 million.
- The Associated Press, counting through about Oct. 29, found more than 43 million early votes — nearly 10 million more than at the same point in 2022 (AP via PBS NewsHour).
- Texas had passed 7 million early votes by Nov. 1, more than 1.5 million above 2022 (Al Jazeera). AP reported Harris County alone at 862,700 ballots by midweek, versus 564,500 four years ago.
- AP found advance voting up more than 30% in Maine, Michigan, North Carolina and Kansas, and up 83% in South Carolina.
What it does and doesn’t mean: In states reporting party registration, more registered Democrats than Republicans have voted early (AP counted about 6.8 million Democrats and 5.2 million Republicans). Analysis: early-vote party splits are not a reliable predictor of results, because the mix of early and Election Day voters differs by party and by state.
What’s at Stake in Congress
| Chamber | Current control | On the ballot | Needed for majority |
|---|---|---|---|
| Senate | Republicans 53, Democrats 47 | 35 seats (33 regular + 2 special) | Democrats need a net gain of 4 seats; Vice President JD Vance breaks 50–50 ties |
| House | Narrow Republican majority | All 435 seats | 218 seats |
Sources: AP/PBS, RTÉ/Reuters, 2026 United States elections (reference).
The Florida and Ohio special Senate elections fill seats held by appointees Ashley Moody and Jon Husted. Sixty House members, plus two non-voting delegates, announced they would not seek re-election — the second-highest total for a single cycle after 1992 — opening dozens of seats.
Senate races to watch
- Texas: Republican Attorney General Ken Paxton faces Democrat James Talarico in one of the most expensive races in the country. Democrats have not won a statewide race in Texas in more than three decades (AP).
- Michigan: Republican Mike Rogers faces Democrat Abdul El-Sayed for an open Democratic-held seat. Democratic Rep. Haley Stevens endorsed Rogers on Nov. 1, Reuters reported via RTÉ.
- Alaska: Republican Sen. Dan Sullivan faces Democrat Mary Peltola. A federal judge dismissed a Justice Department lawsuit connected to a similarly named candidate on the ballot (RTÉ).
- Maine: Republican Sen. Susan Collins faces Democrat Troy Jackson.
- Also competitive: Iowa, South Carolina (open seat), Kansas and Ohio, according to race ratings cited by Fox News and AP.
Governors and Ballot Measures
Thirty-six states and three territories elect governors. In Texas, Gov. Greg Abbott (R) faces Gina Hinojosa (D) (AP). Fox News’ ratings list Georgia, Nevada, Alaska and Wisconsin among the toss-ups.
Fox News counts 145 ballot measures nationwide. Among those drawing the most attention:
- Abortion: Measures in Virginia and Nevada would establish constitutional abortion rights; a Missouri measure would repeal them.
- Voter ID and citizenship: Voter identification or noncitizen-voting measures appear in about a dozen states, including Arizona, Kansas, Nevada, North Carolina and Ohio.
- Taxes: California’s Proposition 40 would impose a one-time 5% tax on residents worth more than $1 billion; Washington voters will decide whether to repeal a 9.9% tax on income above $1 million.
- Elections: Alaska voters will consider repealing ranked-choice voting and open primaries.
The Issues and the Arguments
Republicans: President Donald Trump has led the party’s closing push, rallying in Iowa on Sunday and delivering a closing-argument speech at the Lincoln Memorial Reflecting Pool in Washington, Reuters reported via RTÉ. Some Republican Senate candidates in close races, including Rogers in Michigan and Ashley Hinson in Iowa, called in September for an end to the Iran war and emphasized costs at the gas pump.
Democrats have focused on prices and the war; Senate Democratic leader Chuck Schumer has compared this cycle to the 2006 midterms, when Democrats won both chambers. An October Reuters/Ipsos poll found 76% of respondents blamed the administration’s policies for inflation, including 57% of Republicans. National generic-ballot averages in late October showed Democrats ahead by roughly 8 to 9 points, according to polling aggregates compiled on the 2026 House elections reference page. Polls are snapshots, not predictions.
Voting rules: The campaign has featured extensive litigation. Federal courts blocked a March executive order on mail-ballot screening, the Supreme Court allowed the administration to use the federal SAVE database to check voter rolls, and new congressional maps in several states — including Texas, Florida and California — were drawn mid-decade. Republicans say tighter verification protects election integrity; Democrats and voting-rights groups say the changes risk disenfranchising eligible voters.
What Happens Next
- Polls close starting at 6 p.m. ET in parts of Kentucky and Indiana, with the final polls in Alaska closing at 1 a.m. ET Wednesday (Fox News).
- Counting: Rules for mail ballots vary. Some states require ballots to arrive by Election Day, while others count ballots postmarked by Election Day that arrive later (Al Jazeera), so close races may not be called on election night.
- Post-election disputes: Reuters reported that Alaska Gov. Mike Dunleavy has suggested he may not certify a Peltola victory — an issue likely to draw legal attention if that race is close.
- New Congress: Winners take office in January as the 120th Congress.
For more on recent national news, see our Week in Review (Oct. 26–30) and the Supreme Court’s new term.
Sources
- PBS NewsHour / Associated Press — Early voting jumps across Senate battlegrounds (Oct. 30, 2026)
- Al Jazeera — More than 50 million votes cast (Nov. 1, 2026)
- RTÉ / Reuters — Surge in early voting as candidates make final push (Nov. 2, 2026)
- Fox News — Everything to know about House and Senate control (Nov. 1, 2026)
- 2026 United States elections (reference)
Publisher Disclaimer: Vanderbiltreport.com publishes news and information for general informational and educational purposes. Information is compiled from sources believed to be reliable, but Vanderbiltreport.com does not guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or timeliness of all information presented. Readers should independently verify information and conduct their own research before making financial, investment, business, or other decisions.
