Emissions Gap Report 2026: UNEP Says 1.5°C Overshoot Is Now Unavoidable

Research & Science Spotlight · Vanderbiltreport Team

The United Nations Environment Programme’s Emissions Gap Report 2026, published October 21 under the title The Point of Return, concludes that the chance to hold global warming to 1.5°C without overshooting it “has now been lost.” The annual assessment, launched in London ahead of the COP31 climate talks in Antalya, Türkiye, shifts its focus from avoiding 1.5°C to keeping the overshoot as small and short as possible, and then bringing temperatures back down.

This Emissions Gap Report 2026 summary covers what UNEP found, how it reached those findings, who is affected, and where the analysis has limits.

Key Findings of the Emissions Gap Report 2026

Verified figures from the report

• 2025 emissions: Global greenhouse gas emissions were about 58.4 billion tonnes of CO₂-equivalent (GtCO₂e), roughly flat versus 2024 (about 0.16 Gt lower). UNEP labels the 2025 data provisional and says the overall direction can’t yet be confirmed.
• Slower growth: Emissions grew about 0.8% a year on average over the past decade, down from about 1.7% a year over 1990–2015.
• Fossil CO₂ still rising: Fossil-fuel CO₂ rose roughly 0.4–1.1% in 2025. Lower wildfire emissions from land use offset that increase.
• Major emitters: According to Carbon Brief’s analysis of the report, the United States was the only major emitter with a notable increase (about +133 MtCO₂e). It was driven by higher electricity demand, a rebound in coal power and a colder winter. China, the EU, India, Russia and Indonesia were relatively flat.

Projected warming by 2100

Source: UNEP Emissions Gap Report 2026, as reported by UNEP and Carbon Brief. Estimates are at 66% likelihood unless noted.

The cuts required

UNEP says the lowest-overshoot pathway needs emissions cuts of 18% by 2030, 45% by 2035 and 69% by 2040 compared with 2025 levels. That works out to nearly 6% a year over the next decade. A “below 2°C” pathway needs cuts of 11%, 24% and 37% over the same milestones. Current pledges, if fully implemented, would cut emissions by only 5–8% by 2030 and 11–15% by 2035.

The report also estimates that every five years of CO₂ emissions at current levels adds about 0.1°C to peak warming. It says returning to 1.5°C would need large-scale carbon dioxide removal, about 320 gigatonnes by the end of the century.

Methodology: How UNEP Built the Numbers

• Scenarios: UNEP modeled current policies as of November 2025, and unconditional and conditional national climate plans (NDCs) submitted by a September 1, 2026 cutoff. It extended both past 2035, including a scenario that adds net-zero pledges.
• New benchmark pathways: This year’s “below 2°C” and “lowest 1.5°C overshoot” pathways assume mitigation starts in 2025. They replace the older IPCC AR6 pathways, which assumed cuts would begin around 2020.
• Climate model: Temperature outcomes were estimated with the FaIR simple climate model, which combines uncertainty in emissions projections with uncertainty in the Earth system’s response.
• Policy evidence: The report draws on more than 200 evaluations of climate policies across sectors and countries.

Who Is Affected

• Governments heading to COP31: 124 countries had submitted new 2035 climate targets (NDCs) by September 1, 2026, covering about 75% of global emissions. Most missed the original deadline. The report gives negotiators a measure of how far those pledges fall short.
• Energy markets: UNEP’s benchmarks call for coal use to fall about 15% by 2030 and 55% by 2035 from 2025 levels, oil to fall 5% by 2030, and gas to be flat by 2030. That is relevant to utilities, fuel producers and grid planners. For recent energy coverage, see our report on Russian diesel imports and U.S. diesel prices.
• Clean-energy industries: The report finds renewable capacity has grown about three times faster, and solar about seven times faster, than expected when the Paris Agreement was signed. Renewables are the only area UNEP rates as on track for 2030.
• Communities exposed to climate risk: Each tenth of a degree of extra peak warming increases climate impacts, and UNEP warns that tipping-point risks grow with the size and length of any overshoot.

Implications

Analysis: The report changes the global climate target from “stay below 1.5°C” to “overshoot, peak and decline.” In practice, success will now be judged by how high peak warming goes and how fast temperatures come back down. That raises the stakes for near-term cuts. It also puts carbon removal at the center of policy, a technology UNEP itself calls uncertain at scale.

Expert commentary: “We’ve spent decades postponing cuts to emissions and now we’re facing the consequences,” said Anne Olhoff, director of the UNEP-Copenhagen Climate Centre, in UNEP’s release. “The longer we wait, the larger the risk that we jeopardize the temperature goal.”

Government statement: As reported by TIME, the report includes a U.S. State Department statement that the United States “does not endorse or agree with its analysis or conclusions.” UNEP’s projections no longer count U.S. pledge actions because of the U.S. withdrawal from the Paris Agreement.

Limitations

• Provisional data: 2025 emissions estimates are preliminary and carry high uncertainty, so UNEP doesn’t say whether global emissions have peaked.
• Not directly comparable to past reports: The new benchmark pathways mean this year’s “gap” figures can’t be lined up one-to-one with earlier editions.
• Reliance on carbon removal: Returning to 1.5°C depends on large-scale CO₂ removal. UNEP notes its feasibility is uncertain for socioeconomic and technological reasons, and that it must respect biodiversity and food-security limits.
• Pledges vs. delivery: The 2.6°C and 2.1°C outcomes assume governments fully deliver pledges and net-zero targets. Several G20 members are not on track under current policies.
• El Niño effect: Lower wildfire emissions helped hold 2025 flat. A strong El Niño could push land-use emissions back up in 2026.

What Happens Next

The findings will feed into negotiations at COP31 in Antalya, where countries are expected to be pressed on closing the gap between their 2035 targets and the cuts UNEP says are needed. Read the full report, executive summary and key messages on UNEP’s publication page.

Sources

• UNEP — Emissions Gap Report 2026: The Point of Return (primary source)
• UNEP — “As temperatures spike, this new report outlines humanity’s options for containing climate change”
• Carbon Brief — UNEP: Opportunity has “been lost” to meet 1.5C warming limit without “overshoot”
• IISD SDG Knowledge Hub — Emissions Gap Report 2026 Aims for “Lowest Possible” 1.5°C Overshoot
• TIME — Five Facts You Need To Know From the U.N.’s Major Emissions Gap Report

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