Stock market today: U.S. stock futures pointed lower early Monday, Sept. 28, 2026, after oil prices jumped and the 10-year Treasury yield rose back above 5.2%. The trigger came from Washington. President Donald Trump said he rejected Iran’s latest proposal for a temporary truce that would have reopened the Strait of Hormuz. That puts two pressures on stocks at the same time to start the week: higher energy costs and higher borrowing costs.
This outlook covers what moved overnight, why oil and bond yields matter together right now, and the data and earnings on the calendar through Friday’s September jobs report.
How to read this article: Items labeled Verified are drawn from official sources or wire reports linked below. Statements are attributed to the people who made them. Developing items were changing as of early Monday and may move before the 9:30 a.m. ET open. All times are Eastern.
Stock Market Today at a Glance
| Market | Early Monday, Sept. 28 | Source |
|---|---|---|
| Dow futures | Down about 180 points (−0.4%) | IC Markets |
| S&P 500 futures | Down about 0.4% | IC Markets |
| Nasdaq-100 futures | Down about 0.7% | IC Markets |
| Brent crude | Up more than 3%, above $107 a barrel | Euronews/AP |
| WTI crude | Up nearly 2%, above $94 a barrel | Euronews/AP |
| 10-year Treasury yield | Briefly above 5.21% | Euronews/AP |
| 2-year Treasury yield | Up about 5 basis points, near 4.90% | Tickmill |
| Gold | Down more than 2%, about $4,220 an ounce | Euronews/AP |
Developing: Futures and commodity prices were moving in early trading. Levels above reflect reports published before the U.S. open.
What Happened: Trump Rejects Iran’s Truce Offer
Verified: Iran proposed a seven-day halt in hostilities at the United Nations General Assembly. The offer included reopening the Strait of Hormuz. Iran’s conditions included the release of frozen assets, the lifting of sanctions on its oil and an end to the U.S. naval blockade, according to AP reporting carried by Euronews.
Statement: Speaking to reporters outside the White House, Trump said, “I reject their proposal.” He told Axios that Iran had “overplayed their hand.” He also said he expects negotiations to resume.
The rejection reversed Friday’s move. Oil fell about 2% on Friday, Sept. 25, after Reuters reported that the U.S. and Iran were discussing a reopening of the strait. WTI settled at $92.75 and Brent at $104.45 that day, Yahoo Finance reported.
Expert commentary: “Middle East tensions have flared again,” Stephen Innes of Quintex Intel said in a note quoted by AFP.
For background on why the waterway matters so much to energy prices, see our explainer: What Is the Strait of Hormuz?
Why Oil and Treasury Yields Matter Together
Oil prices feed into inflation. Inflation shapes what the Federal Reserve does with interest rates. That chain is why Monday’s oil jump showed up in the bond market too.
Where the Fed stands
- Verified: The Fed raised its benchmark rate by a quarter point to a range of 3.75% to 4.00% at its September meeting. It was the first increase since July 2023, and the vote was unanimous, according to a J.P. Morgan/Chase summary.
- Verified: 16 of 18 Fed officials projected another hike before the end of 2026. August consumer prices were up 3.4% from a year earlier.
- Statement: Fed Chair Kevin Warsh said inflation “is too high, and has been for too long.”
- Market pricing: Traders put the odds of another hike by the end of the October 27–28 meeting at more than 65%, AP reported.
Yields at levels last seen in 2007
The 10-year Treasury yield closed Friday at 5.16%. That was down 4 basis points on the day but up about 16 basis points for the week, per Yahoo Finance. It touched its highest intraday level since 2007 on Thursday. A global bond gauge’s average yield also rose above 4% for the first time since 2007, Tickmill noted.
Higher yields raise borrowing costs for companies and households. They also make bonds a stronger competitor to stocks. Growth and technology shares, which are valued on earnings expected years from now, tend to be most sensitive. That fits Monday’s pattern, with Nasdaq-100 futures down more than Dow futures.
For more on the rate decision, see Fed Rate Hike: What the First Increase in Three Years Means for Your Money.
Global Markets Overnight
- South Korea: The Kospi fell more than 2% as it reopened after a long holiday break.
- China: The Shanghai Composite fell about 1.8%.
- Hong Kong: The Hang Seng rose about 0.7%.
- Japan: The Nikkei 225 was little changed.
Source: AP via Euronews. The MSCI Asia-Pacific index fell about 0.6%, per Tickmill. The dollar strengthened against most major currencies, and gold and silver fell as yields climbed.
Where Stocks Stand After Last Week
| Index | Close, Fri. Sept. 25 | Day | Week |
|---|---|---|---|
| Dow Jones Industrial Average | 51,828.62 | +0.93% | +0.3% |
| S&P 500 | 7,743.41 | +0.51% | +1.2% |
| Nasdaq Composite | 27,068.72 | +0.48% | +2.1% |
Source: Yahoo Finance. The Dow’s weekly gain ended a three-week losing streak. Friday’s gainers included Microsoft (MSFT), Costco (COST) after its earnings beat and Akamai (AKAM) after its Anthropic cloud agreement. For the full recap, see our Weekly Investor Briefing (Sept. 21–25), Costco’s Q4 results and Akamai’s $11.6 billion Anthropic deal.
Catalysts to Watch This Week
Monday, Sept. 28
- 8:15 a.m.: Fed Vice Chair for Supervision Michelle Bowman discusses bank supervision and regulation (virtual).
- 10:05 a.m.: Fed Governor Michael Barr speaks on the economic outlook and housing at the Chicago Fed.
- After the close: Vail Resorts (MTN) reports earnings.
Fed times are from the Federal Reserve Board calendar.
Rest of the week (scheduled)
| Day | Economic data | Earnings |
|---|---|---|
| Tue., Sept. 29 | JOLTS job openings (Aug.); Conference Board consumer confidence | Carnival (CCL), CarMax (KMX) |
| Wed., Sept. 30 | Q2 GDP third estimate; August personal income and PCE prices; ADP employment | Micron (MU), Conagra (CAG), Jabil (JBL) |
| Thu., Oct. 1 | ISM Manufacturing PMI; weekly jobless claims | Nike (NKE), Accenture (ACN), McCormick (MKC) |
| Fri., Oct. 2 | September jobs report | — |
The full day-by-day schedule, with sources, is in our Week Ahead (Sept. 28–Oct. 4).
Forecast (consensus, not a Vanderbilt Report projection): Economists expect Friday’s report to show about 90,000 jobs added in September with unemployment at 4.2%, according to Tickmill’s market outlook. Actual results can differ widely from consensus.
Also on the calendar: the federal fiscal year ends Wednesday. A stopgap law signed in September funds the government through Dec. 11, so no shutdown deadline falls this week.
Key Takeaways
- The stock market today opens against a backdrop of higher oil prices after Trump rejected Iran’s truce proposal.
- The 10-year Treasury yield is back above 5.2%, near its highest level since 2007.
- More than 65% odds of another Fed hike by late October are priced in, according to AP.
- PCE inflation (Wednesday) and the jobs report (Friday) are the week’s biggest scheduled data points. Micron and Nike lead earnings.
- Developing: Any sign that U.S.–Iran talks resume could move oil sharply, as it did on Friday.
Sources
- Euronews / Associated Press: Oil prices jump after Trump rejects Iran’s truce offer (Sept. 28, 2026)
- Korea Times / AFP: Oil prices spike after Trump rejects Iran truce offer (Sept. 28, 2026)
- Yahoo Finance: Markets News, Sept. 25, 2026
- IC Markets: Stock futures fall as oil rises and Treasury yields hit multiyear highs (Sept. 28, 2026)
- Tickmill: Daily Market Outlook, Sept. 28, 2026
- Chase: Fed raises rates in September, officials signal one more hike in 2026
- Federal Reserve Board: September 2026 calendar
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